LSE:DXNS – (Dixons Retail PLC)

Following up from my post LSE:DXNS on 11th Jan – we had the upside breakout much earlier than anticipated (4 days later) and as of Friday confirmed an ascending triangle by closing just above the 15.5 resistance level and OBV.
The original trade idea came with a breakaway gap and broke the descending trendline from May 2010.

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LSE:TLW Swing Trade

This swing trade was scanned 2 days ago but I wanted to see a 2nd bullish bar to form, to confirm the support.
Friday produced a “Morning Star Reversal” pattern at support (a reliable bullish signal)
– ENTER: Above Friday’s candle
– STOP: beneath 1471 (prior resistance has now been confirmed as support)
– 1st TARGET: Recent swing high and round number of 1600
– 2nd TARGET: The larger pattern appears to be an ascending triangle forming which projects a target around 1720

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LSE:POG Swing Trade

– I see enough confluences below to justify a short swing trade* for LSE:POG
– Enter beneath the low of today’s Doji candle, with stop above
– Initial target could be the recent swing lows, but as this is a potential ‘linear phase’ swing trade the system suggests to let half the profits run (if all goes well…)
– If we close above the Doji the order can be reviewed to reset the levels, or cancelled (depending on how it develops)
* Swing Trade rules have been taken from Marc Rivalland on Swing Trading where he combines Dow theory with his modified Gann Swing chart.

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GBPAUD – Swing Trade

– This swing trade will (hopefully) be short and sweet, although quite risky as we’re trading within a range
– The main reason for the trade is the bearish engulfing pattern and swing trade pattern – so I’ll be targeting the 1.46 area to take a quick profit
– To increase the reward/risk ratio I’ll set up a sell-limit order around the 38.2% fibs level (from the daily range)
– I risk not getting filled at all, but if I entered beneath the low of the candle it would only be a 1:1 which I’ve never been comfortable with anyway
– Although all charts agree to being bearish they leave a lot of room for any price gains before changing to a more bullish view – if in doubt, go without!
* Swing Trade rules have been taken from Marc Rivalland on Swing Trading where he combines Dow theory with his modified Gann Swing chart.

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LSE:BLT – Swing Trade

Using a filter I made in ShareScope it scanned LSE:BHP for a short trade today (BHP Billiton)
– Rules have been taken from Marc Rivalland on Swing Trading where he combines Dow theory with his modified Gann Swing chart.
– Here we are looking for what he calls a ‘Linear Phase’ trade where a downtrend has been confirmed by breaking a swing low (Dow Theory) and an order is placed below the last bar’s low after a pull-back (modified Gann Swing Chart)
– If the trade doesn’t trigger today but instead creates a new ‘up day’  then we re-set the order to catch the drop, until a key swing high is taken out, which would then confirm an uptrend and invalidates the trade.
– My target will be open but I can consider the gap around 1890, the swing low around 1800 or even 1711 – I’ll see how price develops and trail a stop above daily highs

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$INDEX – Rolling Correlations

Out of curiosity I’ve compared the $Index against several markets to see current and past correlations between them.
2 things I notice about these correlations:
– How cyclical they appear – so there do seem to be cycles present between which markets correlate
– How the Euro (despite accounting for 60% of $Index weightings) still oscillates between being correlated, uncorrelated, inverted and back again.

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ASX200 – Still within a bearish retracment?

– US Indices have been outperforming the ASX since Oct 2009.
– More recently European stocks have been outperforming the ASX from around September 2011 (particularly the SMI and DAX).
– In Jan 2012 the CRB Commodities Index ratio line broke its own descending trendline, showing commodities are also outperforming the ASX.
– Should stocks continue to decline and Commodities go up, we can expect the $AUD to continue gaining strength.
– A descending triangle appears to be forming on the ASX200. We would need to see a clear break below the 4100 swing low (and triangle’s lower trendline) to confirm.

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GOLD – Update

– Whilst I’m not short yet, I definitely wouldn’t be looking to buy (on the daily/weekly timeframe) from the charts below
– I think there’s room for more gains but probably limited
– The recent price advance appears to be weak, so more than likely to be a correction than the start of a new bull run
– 61.8% fibs still allows price to reach around 1700, and price has currently stalled at the 50% level from the 1920 highs
– I’ll be looking for bearish Candle patterns in the coming days
– Earlier posts on Gold can be viewed here

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge


LSE:NTG – (Northgate PLC)

– I missed this trade yesterday so will only take this trade if we get a suitable retracement into yesterday’s bar
– I can use a Marabuzo line to enter (50% retracement of the candle body) which is around 211 and target the swing lows around 190
– Resistance should be expected around 200 but this level has recently been broken and I see enough confluences pointing towards the downside to continue

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge


LSE:SMIN (Smiths Group PLC)

SMIN has finally broken out of its channel – ideally we need a close above 10.12 but the charts below show why I think this stock has potential to be quite bullish for the next month or so.
It’s possible we’ll see a pullback before a breakout above 10.12 but I’ll be entering long live at market for the following reasons.

– We’ve seen lots of trading activity between 9.63-9.70 (as see on the volume profile) so close above this range is bullish 
– Slow accumulation appears to have taken place (as shown by OBV) and this has a tendency to occur during basing patterns seen like this channel
– A 6 month cycle appears to be in place which bottomed in November, so the next month should be bullish as we approach the cycle top
Ichimoku has confirmed change in trend and provided the most reliable buy signal
– On 21st December the FTSE Sector General Industrials warned of potential strength against the FTSE by breaking its own descending ratio line.
On the 4th Jan the sector produced a buy signal and has since gained 5.03%


“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge