European Economic Situation Report – Sep 2016

  • Strong rebound from UK construction (19.2pts MoM)
  • Momentum for Euro Area ESI dips negative (YoY%) and composite suggests topping out
  • But ESI remains above near-term trend (post 2010) and trend is rising. Also a solid recovery post-Brexit considering negative sentiment just after  it.
  • German construction at highest level on record at a mere 3pts (having spent 99.9% of its time in contraction)
  • Finland ESI composite crosses above 100 and posts solid monthly gains on industrial and consumer confidence sub indices


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PM growth rank - Aug 16

ISM industry breakdown – August 2016

Charts of interest from July’s ISM purchase managers survey’s for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Above clearly demonstrates as to why I am bullish on the US stock market for the months ahead.

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European ZEW to drag broad Euro sentiment lower

The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is a broad measure for sentiment across the Euro Area and Union. It also includes sub-indices of confidence for industrial, services, consumer, retail trade and construction for Europe and each constituent member. I will be analysing it each month too assess the business cycles within Europe, with the goal of building a stock portfolio around it. Similarly, I’ll be using the ISM PMI reads for US to form my views on the US stock market and economy.
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Market Snapshot_2

AmiBroker exploration

Having recently discovered and purchased AmiBroker software I am keen to learn how to code my own indicators, trading systems and filters. Part of my own personal development will benefit by logging and sharing my various experiments and code, with today’s post showcasing my first ever trade exploration.

My first exploration intends as a quick method of comparing performance and volatility of chosen markets, whilst also serving to suggest the trend as bullish or bearish, reflecting the direction as red or green on the exploration.

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