1.2660 remains pivotal for GBP/CHF

S&P500: The Long & Short Of It

  • The S&P500 made a fresh all-time high on an intraday basis, yet closed back beneath the 3258.10 high. It’s not quite a bearish hammer, but it does show a hesitancy to break higher for now. Still, E-mini futures posted an elongated, bullish hammer and Asia prices are sniffing at the record highs. With Middle
  • East tensions on the back burner (for now) and the potential for a phase one trade deal on Wednesday, we favour the index to break to new highs. However, if it’s to break beneath 3200 then a correction is underway.
  • Info-tech, consumer services and industrials have been the strongest performers over the past 52-weeks. Yet measured from the December 2018 low, the clear winner is the real estate sector having racked up +17.3%. In fact, over this period the only other sector to gain is the communications sector at +2.9%.
  • The energy sector remains effectively rangebound, much like crude oil after its failure to break out of its 9-month high. It’s also the only sector to trade lower over the past 52-weeks, and trail other sectors performance by a long shot.

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USD/JPY Holds Support Despite Rise In Middle East Tensions

That USD/JPY has held support despite a flurry of negative news over the weekend could be a sign of strength over the near-term. Yet with price action suggesting it topped out late December, the pair could break to new lows after a corrective bounce. Matt Simpson takes a technical look.

Historically, September Has Been A Bearish Month For USD/CHF

 

Using historical data, we’ve mapped out a seasonal matrix for FX majors and noted the bearish tendency for USD/CHF in September. Read More

Getting On Top of the S&P500

It wouldn’t be a market correction without comparisons to prior market tops. So, today we compare the S&P500 price action to its three previous bear markets.
The following chart rebases the S&P500 from previous market tops, which enables us to compare these historic periods to see if current price action tracks it in real-time. So far the decline from the 2018 highs is eerily similar to the 1987 and 2007 tops, and may be fast approaching a stage where it needs to carve out its own route.

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S&P500: Do Large Losses Lead to Further Losses?

As of yesterdays close, the S&P500 has shed -9.36% for the month of October. This puts it on track for its tenth most bearish month using data since 1960. Of course, with two trading days left in the month it could still make a comeback, but we don’t see the harm in getting ahead of the game and checking how things panned out for the other nine months.

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European Economic Situation Report – Sep 2016

  • Strong rebound from UK construction (19.2pts MoM)
  • Momentum for Euro Area ESI dips negative (YoY%) and composite suggests topping out
  • But ESI remains above near-term trend (post 2010) and trend is rising. Also a solid recovery post-Brexit considering negative sentiment just after  it.
  • German construction at highest level on record at a mere 3pts (having spent 99.9% of its time in contraction)
  • Finland ESI composite crosses above 100 and posts solid monthly gains on industrial and consumer confidence sub indices

 

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ISM industry breakdown – August 2016

Charts of interest from July’s ISM purchase managers survey’s for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Above clearly demonstrates as to why I am bullish on the US stock market for the months ahead.

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European ZEW to drag broad Euro sentiment lower

The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is a broad measure for sentiment across the Euro Area and Union. It also includes sub-indices of confidence for industrial, services, consumer, retail trade and construction for Europe and each constituent member. I will be analysing it each month too assess the business cycles within Europe, with the goal of building a stock portfolio around it. Similarly, I’ll be using the ISM PMI reads for US to form my views on the US stock market and economy.
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AmiBroker exploration

Having recently discovered and purchased AmiBroker software I am keen to learn how to code my own indicators, trading systems and filters. Part of my own personal development will benefit by logging and sharing my various experiments and code, with today’s post showcasing my first ever trade exploration.

My first exploration intends as a quick method of comparing performance and volatility of chosen markets, whilst also serving to suggest the trend as bullish or bearish, reflecting the direction as red or green on the exploration.

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