- The S&P500 made a fresh all-time high on an intraday basis, yet closed back beneath the 3258.10 high. It’s not quite a bearish hammer, but it does show a hesitancy to break higher for now. Still, E-mini futures posted an elongated, bullish hammer and Asia prices are sniffing at the record highs. With Middle
- East tensions on the back burner (for now) and the potential for a phase one trade deal on Wednesday, we favour the index to break to new highs. However, if it’s to break beneath 3200 then a correction is underway.
- Info-tech, consumer services and industrials have been the strongest performers over the past 52-weeks. Yet measured from the December 2018 low, the clear winner is the real estate sector having racked up +17.3%. In fact, over this period the only other sector to gain is the communications sector at +2.9%.
- The energy sector remains effectively rangebound, much like crude oil after its failure to break out of its 9-month high. It’s also the only sector to trade lower over the past 52-weeks, and trail other sectors performance by a long shot.
That USD/JPY has held support despite a flurry of negative news over the weekend could be a sign of strength over the near-term. Yet with price action suggesting it topped out late December, the pair could break to new lows after a corrective bounce. Matt Simpson takes a technical look.
Using historical data, we’ve mapped out a seasonal matrix for FX majors and noted the bearish tendency for USD/CHF in September. Read More
- Strong rebound from UK construction (19.2pts MoM)
- Momentum for Euro Area ESI dips negative (YoY%) and composite suggests topping out
- But ESI remains above near-term trend (post 2010) and trend is rising. Also a solid recovery post-Brexit considering negative sentiment just after it.
- German construction at highest level on record at a mere 3pts (having spent 99.9% of its time in contraction)
- Finland ESI composite crosses above 100 and posts solid monthly gains on industrial and consumer confidence sub indices
The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is a broad measure for sentiment across the Euro Area and Union. It also includes sub-indices of confidence for industrial, services, consumer, retail trade and construction for Europe and each constituent member. I will be analysing it each month too assess the business cycles within Europe, with the goal of building a stock portfolio around it. Similarly, I’ll be using the ISM PMI reads for US to form my views on the US stock market and economy.
Having recently discovered and purchased AmiBroker software I am keen to learn how to code my own indicators, trading systems and filters. Part of my own personal development will benefit by logging and sharing my various experiments and code, with today’s post showcasing my first ever trade exploration.
My first exploration intends as a quick method of comparing performance and volatility of chosen markets, whilst also serving to suggest the trend as bullish or bearish, reflecting the direction as red or green on the exploration.