GOLD – Targeting 1700?

– Gold has approached the upper Weekly Bollinger Band and hit resistance around 1800
– Stochastics generated a sell signal with a Shooting Star Reversal candle last week, followed by a bearish week

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GOLD – Update

– Whilst I’m not short yet, I definitely wouldn’t be looking to buy (on the daily/weekly timeframe) from the charts below
– I think there’s room for more gains but probably limited
– The recent price advance appears to be weak, so more than likely to be a correction than the start of a new bull run
– 61.8% fibs still allows price to reach around 1700, and price has currently stalled at the 50% level from the 1920 highs
– I’ll be looking for bearish Candle patterns in the coming days
– Earlier posts on Gold can be viewed here

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge



Today’s close has now produced a higher high and a higher low which increases the chance of a bullish move unfolding.

Wave (iii)
Today’s close above b of (ii) makes me think we’ve seen the end of the Double Zig-Zag correction from the 127 high
If so, a likely target for wave (iii) will be back near the 127 high as this is also a 161.8% projection from waves (i) and (iii)
Wave (iv)
Wave (ii) retracement was a simple correction (ABC/Zig-Zag) so wave (iv) is likely to be complex (triangle, flat, expanded flat or combinations of)
However wave (ii) was quite deep at 76.8% so wave (iv) could be quite shallow (23.8%) – therefor I’m favouring a complex flat stalling around 121
Wave (v)
61.8% projection from (iv) is around 137
Please note I will need to do cycle analysis to anticipate timing as this EW is purely looking at the projection and retracement ratios as opposed to the timing of these events.

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge


GOLD – Point & Figure

– Gold has retraced to its intermediate P&F trendline.
– This leaves potential for a bullish retracement so I’ll be monitoring this chart to see if a bottoming pattern forms.
– A close below 1550 is bearish.

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In 2012 I intend to study inter-market relationships to help invest longer-term trades, so here is just a quick post to get the ball rolling where I’m studying the relationships between FX and Commodities.
1st Chart – USDCAD Daily
2nd Chart – Brent Oil Daily (violet)
                   USDCAD Relative to Brent Oil
3rd Chart – 20 and 60 day correlation between USDCAD and Brent Oil
Interestingly the relative strength between the two instruments broke its own trendline, providing a 7 day lead for USDCAD to also break its own trendline. By the time USDCAD has achieved a higher high to confirm the change in trend you’d have had 3 months warning that a new trend may be taking place.
– USDCAD and the USDCAD/Brent Ratio Line are both in a steady uptrend – so it may be worth taking a longer-term long position on USDCAD. (Also note the symmetrical triangle forming on USDCAD)
– However if the Ratio Line were to break the trendline then this may provide an earlier warning that the uptrend in USDCAD may be nearing an end, or provide a lead to invest in oil.



Commodities closed beneath resistance and has broken the prior dominant uptrend. Mometum suggests we may see a retracement towards the 50eMA or 200eMA, but overall I expect to see losses over the coming weeks. 
Generally speaking declining commodities means a stronger Dollar.


GOLD: Cycles

Still very much an experiment, I am trying to extrapolate the underlying cycles within Gold. The main problem I have at this stage is a severe lack of data, as to properly identify the 9 year Juglar cycle I’m looking for I’d ideally need at least 100 years worth of data. However, I do feel I can pinpoint 2 major swing lows that are 9.1 years apart.

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GOLD: Gann Levels