Kiwi Dollars

A$ on track to dip below parity with New Zealand

By Stephan Cauchi

The Australian dollar is on the verge of a historic low against the New Zealand dollar and could even go below parity next year, according to foreign exchange broker ThinkForex.

Currently, one Australian dollar buys $1.049 New Zealand dollars – just above the $1.042 low reached in 2006.

“The currencies have always traded above parity since being floated so this will be an historic event,” said ThinkForex senior market analyst Matt Simpson.

The Aussie hold above parity was looking “increasingly tenuous,” he said.

View original post on Sydney Morning Herald


AUDNZD vs Copper

Comparing Copper ETF to AUDNZD suggests Copper could be a viable leading indicator for this Commodity FX pair on a longer-term basis (weeks or months). The lead time varies between 1-3 months but so far has produced 3 reliable signals, warning of a trend reversal or continuation on AUDNZD. Also interesting to note is the correlation between Copper and AUDNZD as being generally low (between 0 and 0.4) so these 2 markets could even be traded alongside each other without worrying too much about the markets mirroring each other on a longer-term basis.



By monitoring 3 crosses you can start to build up a game plan
AUDNZD has been forming a pennant/flag for a few weeks now which once confirmed is a continuation pattern.
For extra confluences we can look at other AUD/NZD crosses…
– GBPAUD has hit a resistance level –  if this hold then this confirms weakness on GBP and strength to AUD
– GBPNZD I’m still long on this after taking partial profit to let the trade ride. However a retracement is likely after an extended daily bar which also hints at GBP weakness (short-term) but overall NZD is weaker than AUD and NZD. This provides a clue to take AUDNZD long if it confirms the pennant.