Weekly COT Report: USD Bulls Shed $10 Billion Of Exposure

As of Tuesday 7th January:

  • Net-long exposure to USD fell to $4.3 billion. At -$10.2 billion from the prior week, it’s the least bullish investors have been to the dollar since June 2018.
  • Traders were the most bullish on GBP since May 2018.
  • Large speculators were on the cusp of flipping net-long on NZD.
  • Traders were their least bearish on JPY in nearly 3-months. Read More

1.2660 remains pivotal for GBP/CHF

S&P500: The Long & Short Of It

  • The S&P500 made a fresh all-time high on an intraday basis, yet closed back beneath the 3258.10 high. It’s not quite a bearish hammer, but it does show a hesitancy to break higher for now. Still, E-mini futures posted an elongated, bullish hammer and Asia prices are sniffing at the record highs. With Middle
  • East tensions on the back burner (for now) and the potential for a phase one trade deal on Wednesday, we favour the index to break to new highs. However, if it’s to break beneath 3200 then a correction is underway.
  • Info-tech, consumer services and industrials have been the strongest performers over the past 52-weeks. Yet measured from the December 2018 low, the clear winner is the real estate sector having racked up +17.3%. In fact, over this period the only other sector to gain is the communications sector at +2.9%.
  • The energy sector remains effectively rangebound, much like crude oil after its failure to break out of its 9-month high. It’s also the only sector to trade lower over the past 52-weeks, and trail other sectors performance by a long shot.

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USD/JPY Holds Support Despite Rise In Middle East Tensions

That USD/JPY has held support despite a flurry of negative news over the weekend could be a sign of strength over the near-term. Yet with price action suggesting it topped out late December, the pair could break to new lows after a corrective bounce. Matt Simpson takes a technical look.

USD/CHF Is On Track For A Bearish Engulfing Month (Which Forecasts April Showers)

With USD/CHF on the cusp of a bearish engulfing month, we take a look at the pattern’s forward returns alongside the Swiss franc’s seasonality.

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Conservatives Crush Labour In A Landslide Victory

 

Like him or loathe him, Boris Johnson is on track for the biggest election win since Margaret Thatcher, which is some feat given how polarised the Brexit debate has always been.

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BOC Optimism and Firmer WTI Boosts CAD

BOC held rates as expected, although their statement was optimistic enough to send the Canadian dollar sharply higher.

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RBA Hold Rates, Yet Could ‘Ease’ Their Way Into 2020

In the final meeting of the year, RBA decided to keep rates on hold 0.75%, whilst keeping the door open for further cuts. Read More

USD/CHF Hesitates Below Parity (A Level Undefeated Since May)

USD/CHF is approaching parity, a level which is clearly on the radar for market participants. Despite several failed attempts, USD/CHF has not closed above parity since May 2019. We could quibble over the fact that it opened above 1.0000 by a whisker on the 19th of June, yet the fact it marked the beginning of 3.2% slide should also be factored in. Early October saw four volatile candles produce upper wicks which failed to conquer the key level and it has gone untouched since, although prices are now approaching it once more. Read More

Historically, How Bearish Has A ‘Bearish Outside Week’ Been On The ASX200?

By Friday’s close, the ASX200 had produced a bearish outside week after failing to hold above 6,800 which raises the potential for some mean reversion. Given the slight bearish divergence forming with RSI and the clear loss of momentum leading it back towards its all-time high, we explore the bearish potential of this classic candlestick pattern to see if it can pull the rug from under Santa’s rally in December. Read More