SP500: Market Cycles
The smallest cycle is 35 weeks and we are approximately 1/4 of the way through – so initially expect to see gains on the US markets until we reach it’s mid point (around mid July) where we could begin to see the decline lasting until around mid November 2011 where it should bottom out.
Using the markets bottom in March 2009 as my starting point, we can see that the crash was the results of several major cycles ending simultaneously. Around mid November 2011 we will see the 3 smaller cycles converge, which will in fact be the mid point to the larger cycle. This suggests that the market will not crash as deep as it did in 2009, but it could still be quite significant drop.