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LSE:TALV – Hit initial Target – Where to now?

On 7th Jan I did a full analysis of TALV and (so far) the bullish bias has been correct. The original analysis cab be viewed here.

Today my suggested target around the fib cluster at 360 was hit – so where from here?
SUMMARY
– I believe we are due a correction so either take profits, hold your position or look to re-enter long at a more favourable price. When I look through the bullish/bearish confluences, all the bullish views point towards the longer-term and the bearish point towards the shorter-term (i.e. any time now!). The main warning signal comes from the price oscillator – so we need to monitor price to confirm when this correction is over, before looking for further bullish signals to either re-enter long or add to positions.
– Look at the resistance levels below and if we see any buy signals within these areas we can then target the listed resistance levels.
BULLISH CONFLUENCES
– We can confirm the breakout was on high volume with OBV
– ADX is rising to confirm trend strength
– Price now above 50sMA and 200sMA
– MACD confirms positive momentum as MACD is above zero line and above signal line
– 13 week (3 month) momentum is now bullish (above zero line)
– Ichimoku has also provided its most reliable bullish signals: (Ichimoku guide can be viewed here)
– Chikou Span, price above Kumo
– Tenkan Sen above Kijun Sen and both above Kumo
– Price above Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen
BEARISH CONFLUENCES
– Price is at a historical extreme on the trend oscillator which suggests a return towards its own 20sMA – The last time we reached this level there was a hard, deep correction.
– A confluence of resistance areas can be viewed (below) from Kumo, Volume Profile and previous resistance levels.
– 8-day momentum is showing signs of divergences
RESISTANCE LEVELS
400 – 415: Volume profile shows above average activity within this range. Weekly Kumo also within this area.
396: Previous support may become resistance
379-386: Previous Gap
363-367: Fib cluster
SUPPORT LEVELS
335: 200sMA and 23.6% Fibs
300-303.7: Round number, Kumo and 38.2% Fibs
283.6: 50% Fibs
263.5: 61.8% Fibs
250: Previous breakout zone
  
  
  
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“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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LSE:DXNS – (Dixons Retail PLC) Accumulation taking place?

– If I understand OBV correctly, then if OBV rises ahead of price it means more volume has occurred on up days than down days, and can suggest the slow accumulation of a stock.
– This is creating a positive divergence between price and OBV, which indicates price gains.
– We’re not too far off the historic lows around 6.8 and the decline is losing momentum , which can be seen on MACD etc.
Is stock accumulation taking place? If so then it is too soon to act, but one to observe this year to see if we can confirm any basing pattern and subsequent breakout to the upside.

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LSE:BRBY (Burberry Group Plc)

– Failed to close above the 200sMA
– Formed a Shooting Star reversal candle
– Shooting Star has formed at top of Bollinger Band and near historical resistance on the Price Oscillator – this suggests a return to the 20sMA
– Personal Goods Sector is showing the same reversal pattern
– Current price action looks corrective to the primary trend but this is trading in the direction of the intermediate trend

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NYSE:CAT

– 3 closes above 200sMA
– Today’s close is above resistance at 98
– Potential runaway/measuring gap projects target around 104 area
– Previous gap between 106-110 also act as a target
– Use latest gap for stop placement –higher volume increase odds of gap not filling so stop beneath yesterdays low may be worth a look
– If this gap is filled then a close beneath this is very bearish

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TRADE – LSE:KAZ

– Price has managed to stay above the descending trendline and now acting as a support level.
– The higher high now invalids the symmetrical triangle (usually a continuation pattern) and suggests further gains
– The outside day suggests near-term gains
– Ichimoku chart is providing strong bullish signals with potential support around 9.2

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TRADE – LSE:TALV

Here’s a thorough analysis of TALV (Talvivaara Mining Company Ltd) which is a Mining Stock I recently suggested to watch. Overall I think the longer-term bullish confluences look strong and the bearish confluences all point towards a retracement as opposed to continuation of the bearish trend.

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AUDUSD – Re-Entry

I’m currently long on AUDUSD and questioning whether to close my position after a day of consolidating.
– Overall I’m still bullish as I cannot see any concerning bearish divergences forming on RSI
– However RSI does seem to have formed cycle peaks on several timeframes so it is making me consider a pullback
– If a pullback is to occur I have included potential stalling points where I will consider ‘buying dips’
– The resistance area is clearly around 1.038-39 but if broken we may possibly retest the high around 1.07              
So I’m favouring buying any dips, or resetting my entry to enter above the 1.039 area with my stop beneath the congestion zone – whichever happens first! 
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“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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TRADE: LSE:CEY – Centamin Egypt Ltd

– Centamin Egypt Ltd (CEY) is a Gold Mining Company within an established downtrend
– Even though both Gold and CEY are within a downtrend, KEY is the weakest performer as the ratio line between the two is still descending.
– CEY is resting on the historical support/resistance level around 80 – I’ll be shorting on the assumption that if this level breaks it could be quite significant.
– The target becomes a little tricky because not much price action has been seen beneath the 80 level until the 55 mark (which is clearer to see on the volue histogram on the 2nd pic) so initially I’ll target 55 and assess how the trade develops if it ever triggers.
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“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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FTSE100 – MARKET BREADTH

I had been watching the divergences between the small-cap stocks and FTSE100 for the majority of last year, so when the losses did come it didn’t come as too much of a surprise.
Without trying to sound too bullish too soon into the year, we now see small-cap and large-cap stocks converging again, and with the FTSE closing above the 200-day MA for the first time since August 2011 its certainly not a bad start to the year.
We may we be due a pullback but I’ll be keeping an eye on my bullish stock list for Q1 of 2012 and hope to catch some larger moves.
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“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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BRENT OIL – ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Today’s close has now produced a higher high and a higher low which increases the chance of a bullish move unfolding.

Wave (iii)
Today’s close above b of (ii) makes me think we’ve seen the end of the Double Zig-Zag correction from the 127 high
If so, a likely target for wave (iii) will be back near the 127 high as this is also a 161.8% projection from waves (i) and (iii)
Wave (iv)
Wave (ii) retracement was a simple correction (ABC/Zig-Zag) so wave (iv) is likely to be complex (triangle, flat, expanded flat or combinations of)
However wave (ii) was quite deep at 76.8% so wave (iv) could be quite shallow (23.8%) – therefor I’m favouring a complex flat stalling around 121
Wave (v)
61.8% projection from (iv) is around 137
Please note I will need to do cycle analysis to anticipate timing as this EW is purely looking at the projection and retracement ratios as opposed to the timing of these events.
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“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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