DJIA: Market Cycles

The chart below is the monthly chart of the Dow Jones industrial  from 1923 on a logarithmic
scale. I’m trying to isolate the major cycles to provide me with a greater idea of future direction.

DOW-Weekly-Cycles-and-projection

 

By taking a closer look at the weekly chart I can now project possible turning points which will aid with wave counting and future direction. This is by no means a precise method but will provide a general framework from which to work from.

To put it into context – here’s the original chart on a linear scale. A couple of thoughts spring to mind…
– The ‘Swinging 60’s’ weren’t that swinging for stocks…
– If a head and shoulders has been forming since 1998 then it won’t be confirmed until the Dow drops below 7000… The target would be somewhere around the floor, and I’ll either be exceedingly rich or wiped out for good – either way I doubt I’ll be trading….
– If we really have began a new bullish cycle we’ll be taking out the 2007 tops with ease.

 

Dow-Monthly-Cycles-from-1923-Linear

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