Kiwi Dollars

A$ on track to dip below parity with New Zealand

By Stephan Cauchi

The Australian dollar is on the verge of a historic low against the New Zealand dollar and could even go below parity next year, according to foreign exchange broker ThinkForex.

Currently, one Australian dollar buys $1.049 New Zealand dollars – just above the $1.042 low reached in 2006.

“The currencies have always traded above parity since being floated so this will be an historic event,” said ThinkForex senior market analyst Matt Simpson.

The Aussie hold above parity was looking “increasingly tenuous,” he said.

View original post on Sydney Morning Herald

Aerospace

TRADE: NMX2710 – Aerospace & Defence

Aerospace & Defence has produced an Evening Star Reversal pattern at a resistance level around 3157 for a potential short trade.

The 3 candle pattern is made up of a bullish belt-hold, hanging man and bearish belt-hold candles.

Looking at the stocks within the sector shows how the sector is littered with potential reversals patterns, so I find it more logical to trade the sector.

You could enter short beneath Friday’s candle, but I’ll set up a sell-limit to achieve much higher risk/reward (should to all go to plan…)

***

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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USDCHF

FOREX: USDCHF

USDCHF weekly chart produced  a bearish engulfing candle and recent gains were rejected around a fibonacci cluster.

I’m currently short on this pair and posted a set-up recently on the TradeSecret forum and will continue to short any pullbacks.

The daily candle on Friday produced a hammer (bullish) so I expect a retracement before losses resume to test historical lows… and possibly beyond!

***

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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Mobile-Telecomms

TRADE: NMX6570 (Mobile Telecomms FTSE350 Sector)

A slightly unusual trade for me – but I do like the multiple confluences of this FTSE350 sector to initiate a long position. 


I will be entering long above 3850 with an initial target of 4200. 

  • Closed above 50+200eMA
  • Broke out of descending trendline
  • Bullish divergence on MACD – signal line produces buy signal and crosses over zero line
  • ADX is neutral – ideal for a swing trade
  • Point & Figure chart has produced a triple top – buy above 3850
  • Sector has outperformed FTSE100 in recent weeks, despite under-performing since Feb 2011

SP500-Daily-Cycles

SP500: Update


SUMMARY


To quote myself from last week “I don’t see a quick conclusion coming from the current market”. Hmmm… Well that was a mistake! 

However we did see that vitial close beneath the 1260 for losses to take hold, and done with such force that the potential bullish symmetrical and and bullish hammer candle were quite literally obliterated on Monday after opening, despite opening with a promising gap-up. 

Monday’s trading saw the 200eMA get tested, but Tuesday rallied straight through this critical support as the markets witnessed the largest declines 2008. In fact losses were so rapid last week that we’re already close to reaching the minimum target from the head and shoulders pattern. 

Friday saw a critical 50% fib level tested but we closed the day just above it producing a long legged Doji. This is hardly a bullish  sign but represents the markets uncertaintly – personally I think the market is just catching its breath for another drop. 

So how long can we expect the bears to remain in control? 

The cycles are looking as bearish as ever but hinting a possible retracement. Weekly and Daily RSI have entered the oversold territory, so at best I anticipate a retracement before further losses and will continue to short any pullbacks. I don’t expect any gains to reach the 200eMA any time soon (if at all) but this will provide a solid resistance level, along with the previous swing low of 1260. 

If we can break through the fibonacci cluster my eyes will be set on the swing low of 1010.

CYCLES


22.1 Day
Centred  SMA
 
So it would appear the larger cycle has topped painting a bearish picture overall. 


MARKET BREADTH

McClellan
 Summation:
































I’ve been following the divergences between the large cap and mid-cap stocks US stocks since last year. The Russell 2000 is the most prominent.



0% (down from 40.49%)

 0% (down from 22.87%)

 0% (down from 7.89%)


SENTIMENT


1.23 (up from 1.0) – The highest level since March 2010


30 (Down from 69) – From just under overbought to just over overbought in 5 trading days

Closed at 32 but peak 39 on Friday making it the highest level since July 2010


TREND
Primary
 

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE


Fibonacci:















Resistance:









Support:


Fib cluster around 1100 – 1108 may provide support – of broken then I’ll look the swing low around 1010 (which is also near the 50% fib line)

1260: Weekly 50eMA 

1276: Daily 200eMA  

1255: Weekly Candle Marabuzo Line

1230: Daily Marabuzo Line




1188: Weekly 200eMA  

1170: Swing low 

1130: Pivot 

1100 to 1108: Fib Retracement  

1010: Swing Low 


PATTERNS
Reversal

















Weekly Candle:

Daily Candle:
















Using the distance between the head and neckline projects a minimum target of 1134.5.


Bearish Belthold

Long Legged Doji (Aka Rickshaw Man)
***

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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TRADE: CHFJPY

Risky counter-trend (especially with the ‘flight to Swiss safety’) but to me, a wedge is a wedge!
Bearish Wedge forming with RSI divergence – a break below swing low of 95.33 confirms with a target at the base of the wedge around 90.
***

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge

SP500-Daily-Candles

SP500: Update

Outlook
2 weeks since my last SP500 post and the market is still undecided as to which way it wants to go. 



The 1300 level held well until last Friday when we saw an Intra-day low of 1286. Although we saw a recovery near the end of trading it still closed below this important level at 1295.2


So yet again the dominant trendline and 200eMA hold, but a concern to me is each swing high has been lower and is trapped between the 50+200eMA. 


We could however be witnessing the formation of a Symmetrical Triangle (Bullish) and I see no evidence of bearish divergence on the daily or weekly RSI. 





A quick look at the P&F chart (using closing prices) demonstrates the range-bound trading we have been witnessing since the April ’11 high. We need a close above 1360 to confirm the dominant trend is still on force, whereas a close below 1260 would warn of a reversal. 



So to summarise I still have a very mixed picture. On one hand I have bearish cycles, bearish monthly/weekly candlesticks and decline in stocks above their 5/50/200 eMA’s. 

On the other hand I have a bullish symmetrical triangle, no bearish divergences, a neutral balance between put/call options and the dominant trendline and 200eMA which refuses to be broken.

I don’t see a quick conclusion coming from the current market, so I’ll be sticking to short-term trades using support and resistance levels with oscillators and divergences. 

    
Sentiment
BPSPX (Bull/Bear ratio): 60.00 (Down from 69)

VIX: 25.25 – A relatively high reading (compared to recent weeks) implies fear in the market and increases the chance of a subdued market next week. 

A low reading represents complacency, which is when most people get ‘caught out’ by the market and a big move can occur. 



Market Breadth
All 3 readings have dropped significantly  from my past assessment 2 weeks ago. 

% Stocks above 200 sMA: 40.49% (down from 63.36%)

% Stocks above 50 sMA: 22.87% (down from 41.9%)

% Stocks above 5 sMA: 7.89% (down from 35.22%)

Above 70% is considered overbought and below 30% oversold.




On a personal note it is encouraging to see the cycles have held relatively well, and from a timing perspective that I anticipated the market to remain choppy and indecisive for a minimum of 2 weeks, as has been the case.  


Whether this is down to skill or pot luck remains to be seen, but whilst these swings highs remain bearish so will my cycle outlook. 


With recent swing highs getting lower it fits in with my original analysis that we should have seen a top on the the larger cycle, and for it to bring downward pressure upon the smaller cycles. 




Patterns


  • Potential symmetrical triangle forming on daily.
  • Friday’s candle is an inverted hammer (bullish warning) with a relatively larger real-body, and bounced off the 200eMA. 
  • Monthly Candles: 2x Hanging Men (Bearish) followed by a Shooting Star (Bearish).
  • Weekly Candles: Last week saw a bearish long real-body and a close beneath the 1300 level. 
***

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge

TRADE: TNY

I have just posted a trade idea on TradeSecret.co

***

“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge

FTSE100-HEW

FTSE100: Harmonic Elliot Waves

Harmonic Elliott Waves is a new method of wave counting by Ian Copsey. He’s modified the original impulsive wave structure by using harmonic ratios of the fibonacci sequence to forecast his wave counts. 
I’m working my way through his new book Harmonic Elliott Wave: The Case For Modification of R. N. Elliotts Impulsive Wave Structure so naturally keen to take apply this to the FTSE and see if I can get even remotely close.
I am by no means a master of his method yet, but will continue to study it as the calls Ian has made using his method are truly staggering, and at times his price forecasts on Indices and FX are within a pip.. months before the event happens! I won’t reveal his methods as they are in his book, he teaches a course and he now offers an analysis service. There’s a free introduction on his website with a pdf and video, and is definitely worth a look if you like count waves. 
Assuming FTSE does continue to decline I feel that the 4971.4 is a crucial swing low, so could prove to be an appropriate target as this is also a 50% retracement level. 

FX-Pairs-Relative-Strength

FOREX: Relative Strength

A very quick and visual way to choose your potential FX pairs for the week ahead – below is the relative strength of 15 curreny pairs over the past month.
Look for long opportunities on rising pairs and short opportunities for falling pairs.
The strongest performer overall is clearly CHF, so wait for pullbacks to go long on CHF/JPY and short on GBP/CHF