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GOLD – Targeting 1700?

WEEKLY CHART
– Gold has approached the upper Weekly Bollinger Band and hit resistance around 1800
– Stochastics generated a sell signal with a Shooting Star Reversal candle last week, followed by a bearish week

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GOLD – Update

– Whilst I’m not short yet, I definitely wouldn’t be looking to buy (on the daily/weekly timeframe) from the charts below
– I think there’s room for more gains but probably limited
– The recent price advance appears to be weak, so more than likely to be a correction than the start of a new bull run
– 61.8% fibs still allows price to reach around 1700, and price has currently stalled at the 50% level from the 1920 highs
– I’ll be looking for bearish Candle patterns in the coming days
– Earlier posts on Gold can be viewed here
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“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

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BRENT OIL – ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Today’s close has now produced a higher high and a higher low which increases the chance of a bullish move unfolding.

Wave (iii)
Today’s close above b of (ii) makes me think we’ve seen the end of the Double Zig-Zag correction from the 127 high
If so, a likely target for wave (iii) will be back near the 127 high as this is also a 161.8% projection from waves (i) and (iii)
Wave (iv)
Wave (ii) retracement was a simple correction (ABC/Zig-Zag) so wave (iv) is likely to be complex (triangle, flat, expanded flat or combinations of)
However wave (ii) was quite deep at 76.8% so wave (iv) could be quite shallow (23.8%) – therefor I’m favouring a complex flat stalling around 121
Wave (v)
61.8% projection from (iv) is around 137
Please note I will need to do cycle analysis to anticipate timing as this EW is purely looking at the projection and retracement ratios as opposed to the timing of these events.
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“Trade what you see, not what you think…”

Follow @cLeverEdge

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GOLD – Point & Figure

– Gold has retraced to its intermediate P&F trendline.
– This leaves potential for a bullish retracement so I’ll be monitoring this chart to see if a bottoming pattern forms.
– A close below 1550 is bearish.

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USDCAD vs OIL

In 2012 I intend to study inter-market relationships to help invest longer-term trades, so here is just a quick post to get the ball rolling where I’m studying the relationships between FX and Commodities.
1st Chart – USDCAD Daily
2nd Chart – Brent Oil Daily (violet)
                   USDCAD Relative to Brent Oil
3rd Chart – 20 and 60 day correlation between USDCAD and Brent Oil
Interestingly the relative strength between the two instruments broke its own trendline, providing a 7 day lead for USDCAD to also break its own trendline. By the time USDCAD has achieved a higher high to confirm the change in trend you’d have had 3 months warning that a new trend may be taking place.
Conclusion
– USDCAD and the USDCAD/Brent Ratio Line are both in a steady uptrend – so it may be worth taking a longer-term long position on USDCAD. (Also note the symmetrical triangle forming on USDCAD)
– However if the Ratio Line were to break the trendline then this may provide an earlier warning that the uptrend in USDCAD may be nearing an end, or provide a lead to invest in oil.

CRB-Index

CRB INDEX: Update

Commodities closed beneath resistance and has broken the prior dominant uptrend. Mometum suggests we may see a retracement towards the 50eMA or 200eMA, but overall I expect to see losses over the coming weeks. 
 
Generally speaking declining commodities means a stronger Dollar.

Gold-Monthly

GOLD: Cycles

Still very much an experiment, I am trying to extrapolate the underlying cycles within Gold. The main problem I have at this stage is a severe lack of data, as to properly identify the 9 year Juglar cycle I’m looking for I’d ideally need at least 100 years worth of data. However, I do feel I can pinpoint 2 major swing lows that are 9.1 years apart.

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GOLD: Gann Levels

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