ASX200 – Still within a bearish retracment?

– US Indices have been outperforming the ASX since Oct 2009.
– More recently European stocks have been outperforming the ASX from around September 2011 (particularly the SMI and DAX).
– In Jan 2012 the CRB Commodities Index ratio line broke its own descending trendline, showing commodities are also outperforming the ASX.
– Should stocks continue to decline and Commodities go up, we can expect the $AUD to continue gaining strength.
– A descending triangle appears to be forming on the ASX200. We would need to see a clear break below the 4100 swing low (and triangle’s lower trendline) to confirm.

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