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European Economic Situation Report – Sep 2016

  • Strong rebound from UK construction (19.2pts MoM)
  • Momentum for Euro Area ESI dips negative (YoY%) and composite suggests topping out
  • But ESI remains above near-term trend (post 2010) and trend is rising. Also a solid recovery post-Brexit considering negative sentiment just after  it.
  • German construction at highest level on record at a mere 3pts (having spent 99.9% of its time in contraction)
  • Finland ESI composite crosses above 100 and posts solid monthly gains on industrial and consumer confidence sub indices

 

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PM growth rank - Aug 16

ISM industry breakdown – August 2016

Charts of interest from July’s ISM purchase managers survey’s for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Above clearly demonstrates as to why I am bullish on the US stock market for the months ahead.

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European ZEW to drag broad Euro sentiment lower

The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is a broad measure for sentiment across the Euro Area and Union. It also includes sub-indices of confidence for industrial, services, consumer, retail trade and construction for Europe and each constituent member. I will be analysing it each month too assess the business cycles within Europe, with the goal of building a stock portfolio around it. Similarly, I’ll be using the ISM PMI reads for US to form my views on the US stock market and economy.
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AmiBroker exploration

Having recently discovered and purchased AmiBroker software I am keen to learn how to code my own indicators, trading systems and filters. Part of my own personal development will benefit by logging and sharing my various experiments and code, with today’s post showcasing my first ever trade exploration.

My first exploration intends as a quick method of comparing performance and volatility of chosen markets, whilst also serving to suggest the trend as bullish or bearish, reflecting the direction as red or green on the exploration.

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Kiwi Dollars

A$ on track to dip below parity with New Zealand

By Stephan Cauchi

The Australian dollar is on the verge of a historic low against the New Zealand dollar and could even go below parity next year, according to foreign exchange broker ThinkForex.

Currently, one Australian dollar buys $1.049 New Zealand dollars – just above the $1.042 low reached in 2006.

“The currencies have always traded above parity since being floated so this will be an historic event,” said ThinkForex senior market analyst Matt Simpson.

The Aussie hold above parity was looking “increasingly tenuous,” he said.

View original post on Sydney Morning Herald

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USING FX FUTURES CHARTS TO ANALYSE THE FOREX MARKETS

If you’re short of time or struggle to analyse 30+ Forex Markets regularly then here is a way to quickly filter through to the high probability charts. By using Currency Futures charts we can very quickly look for relative strength of Currencies to help pair the strong against the weak. We can do so by using traditional Technical Analysis to identify trends, patterns or even trade signals, before pairing the strongest currencies with the weakest. The free www.finviz.com charts below consist of daily: AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, NZD, USD.

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DXY – Weekly Cycles

I only use Cycles as a rough guide but I have observed the following:
– 84 wk Cycle on DXY seems feasible and generates the next trough around mid-Feb 2013
– 42wk cycle appears to have topped around mid July ‘12
– Cycles are more prominent within triangles and the 84wk cycle has been reasonable accurate
since 1994 (and particularly accurate over the last 5 troughs)

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GOLD – Targeting 1700?

WEEKLY CHART
– Gold has approached the upper Weekly Bollinger Band and hit resistance around 1800
– Stochastics generated a sell signal with a Shooting Star Reversal candle last week, followed by a bearish week

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Getting Mean with Bollinger Bands

After a discussion with a fellow trader it’s become apparent I have not been paying enough attention to good old fashioned Bollinger Bands. Here I take a look at reversal candles in combination with bollinger bands.

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LSE:TW – Symmetrical Triangle

– Today TW. closed above descending trendline on volume
– Outperforming FTSE100
– Medium/Short-term trends are bullish
SUPPORT: 50eMA and ascending trendline
RESISTANCE: Historical level around 55
ENTRY: Live at market (assuming no Gap up tomorrow) or look for intraday retracement towards descending trendline
STOP: Beneath Tuesday’s candle around 49.5 or the 50eMA around 48.9
TARGET: 56 or 59, depending on how you decide to measure your triangles.