- Strong rebound from UK construction (19.2pts MoM)
- Momentum for Euro Area ESI dips negative (YoY%) and composite suggests topping out
- But ESI remains above near-term trend (post 2010) and trend is rising. Also a solid recovery post-Brexit considering negative sentiment just after it.
- German construction at highest level on record at a mere 3pts (having spent 99.9% of its time in contraction)
- Finland ESI composite crosses above 100 and posts solid monthly gains on industrial and consumer confidence sub indices
The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is a broad measure for sentiment across the Euro Area and Union. It also includes sub-indices of confidence for industrial, services, consumer, retail trade and construction for Europe and each constituent member. I will be analysing it each month too assess the business cycles within Europe, with the goal of building a stock portfolio around it. Similarly, I’ll be using the ISM PMI reads for US to form my views on the US stock market and economy.
Having recently discovered and purchased AmiBroker software I am keen to learn how to code my own indicators, trading systems and filters. Part of my own personal development will benefit by logging and sharing my various experiments and code, with today’s post showcasing my first ever trade exploration.
My first exploration intends as a quick method of comparing performance and volatility of chosen markets, whilst also serving to suggest the trend as bullish or bearish, reflecting the direction as red or green on the exploration.
The Australian dollar is on the verge of a historic low against the New Zealand dollar and could even go below parity next year, according to foreign exchange broker ThinkForex.
Currently, one Australian dollar buys $1.049 New Zealand dollars – just above the $1.042 low reached in 2006.
“The currencies have always traded above parity since being floated so this will be an historic event,” said ThinkForex senior market analyst Matt Simpson.
The Aussie hold above parity was looking “increasingly tenuous,” he said.
View original post on Sydney Morning Herald
– 84 wk Cycle on DXY seems feasible and generates the next trough around mid-Feb 2013
– 42wk cycle appears to have topped around mid July ‘12
– Cycles are more prominent within triangles and the 84wk cycle has been reasonable accurate
since 1994 (and particularly accurate over the last 5 troughs)